What a difference three months makes: Why Arsenal are now favourites to beat Chelsea

The last time Arsenal travelled to Wembley Stadium, they did so wounded and weary. The most difficult season of Arsene Wenger’s career, one in which the club finished outside the top four for the first time in his reign, rested entirely on the outcome of their FA Cup final against Chelsea. No-one, save for some of the most optimistic fans, gave them a chance of overcoming the Premier League’s runaway champions. Yet they did.

Fast-forward three months and suddenly two teams that could not have felt further apart before that match are a whole lot closer together. When they meet again on Sunday in the Community Shield, not only is the result too close to call, Arsenal might just even edge it as favourites.

Since that FA Cup victory, Wenger has once again solidified his position at the club, signing a new contract and promptly spending the kind of money that had previously seemed like the preserve of richer, more ambitious clubs. But the mentality at Arsenal is changing. Alexandre Lacazette arrived for a club-record £50 million – a player they have needed since Robin van Persie moved to Old Trafford – and they have held firm over their contract rebels.

The general opinion always prevailed that, eventually, Wenger would buckle on Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez. But his latest remarks, more assertive than with any previous wantaway player, suggest he really means what he says this time. ‘Alexis is focused. My decision is clear, he will stay. He will accept that. I think he will be here for this season. If we manage to do it for more seasons we will.’

Sanchez, who scored the opener back in May and was even seen kissing the badge in training, such has been the turnaround in that particular saga, is looking increasingly likely to feature against Chelsea once again. He has been working tirelessly to get back to full fitness, even working out at home in the evenings after training at London Colney has long since finished.

The mood around Arsenal is one of optimism and positivity, at least for now. They have reinforced two key positions, left-back and striker, held onto their two biggest stars and are still pursuing a deal for a midfielder to round off a summer of solidification. But Chelsea have endured only stagnation. Their starting XI is no stronger than when they met Arsenal in the FA Cup final and their manager is growing increasingly frustrated by a lack of transfer activity.

Antonio Conte, who tellingly has yet to pen a contract extension even if he did accept the offer of a pay increase, wants at least four more signings before the window closes. On Sunday, a new era begins at Chelsea, an era without serial winner and skipper John Terry, two-time title-winning enforcer Nemanja Matic and wind-up merchant supreme Diego Costa. Although the former was well past his best, Chelsea’s spine is seriously weakened.

Alvaro Morata has struggled in pre-season and will undoubtedly take time to adapt to the rigours of English football. The notion that he could immediately match Costa’s 20-goal haul is ambitious to say the least – Wenger even noted he was ‘less of a goalscorer’ – let alone replace his countryman’s all-round approach play. It was Costa, of course, who improbably pulled the 10-man Blues level at Wembley.

In Tiemoue Bakayoko, the champions have found an upgrade on Matic, though he will likely be absent until after the international break. Antonio Rudiger, another summer signing, is no great improvement on Nathan Ake and is unlikely to threaten an already well established back three.

But Eden Hazard’s ankle break means he will miss the Arsenal game, and the start of the league season, depriving Chelsea of two players who scored over half the club’s total goals last season. Conte also wants two new full-backs, with major doubts over the long-term sustainability of continuing to use Marcos Alonso and Victor Moses, a new winger and a backup striker. But the club have signed none of the above. If this all feels vaguely familiar, it is because it has happened before.

Two summers ago, Jose Mourinho was likewise denied the signings he wanted, as Conte is keen to point out. ‘We know the next season will be tough and we want to avoid what happened in the previous season for Chelsea, two years ago, when the team finished in 10th place in the Premier League. We want to try to avoid this. I want to try to avoid what happened two seasons ago.

‘Two coaches have been sacked from Chelsea and Leicester after winning the league and I want to avoid this and the players want to avoid the bad season they had with Mourinho. We are working very well and we hope to find the best solution in the future. We have a lot of young players and if necessary we will have to try to play these players.’

The mood in the two camps could scarcely be more different. Chelsea and Conte are looking backwards, while Arsenal and Wenger are striding forwards. Admittedly the Blues did win their pre-season friendly in Beijing earlier this summer, but Conte picked a virtually full-strength line-up – one he could even use on Sunday – while Wenger rotated a squad who had been hit by a sickness bug, starting just three undisputed members of his best XI.

Back then, he did not even have Sanchez to call on either. But now the Chilean is back and looking as motivated as ever, as do the entire squad. Their last trip to Wembley could have signalled the end of Wenger’s reign, instead it heralded the beginning of one last chance. And both manager and players are primed to seize it. The last time they took on Chelsea they seemed to be facing an impossible task against a team who had won seven on the bounce. Now victory – and a first trophy of the season – are the minimum expectation.