In almost any other season, Manchester United would be title favourites. They have the best defence in the Premier League – and are still in single digits for goals conceded – while they are scoring freely at the other end and have arguably the best big-game manager in the division. Yet they go into Sunday’s derby clash against City as, incredibly, underdogs, while you have to go back to 2005 for the last time a second-placed team was so far adrift of the leaders.
This is a side that have picked up just two less points than Chelsea had at the same stage of last season, who were nine games in to their record-equalling winning run. In fact, in five of the last 10 years, United’s points tally would have seen them top the table after 15 match days. Over the same period, only three teams have boasted a better goal difference at this stage of the campaign.
If Jose Mourinho is just a little bit annoyed at the endless praise lavished on Pep Guardiola and City – and the scorn and derision often attached to his fondness for pragmatism – it is easy to see why. While other managers have smiled and shrugged when asked about City’s form, Mourinho understandably feels like his own team’s achievements have been swallowed up and downplayed.
United have swatted aside the lesser lights in the division with ease, something the likes of Tottenham and Liverpool do not always find so easy to do. In the biggest matches they have been resilient and organised, though not always pleasant to watch. It did not quite work at Stamford Bridge, but against Arsenal they picked up three points – despite having four times as few shots on target.
Meanwhile, City have evolved their style under Guardiola and taken it up a notch, now playing at a level that can be compared to his great Barcelona and Bayern Munich sides. They dominate and control matches unlike any previous Premier League team, suffocating an opposition that is usually dug in on their own 18-yard line. It is breath-taking to watch.
It has turned Sunday’s game into more than just a top-of-the-table clash, but a stylistic battle regarding the very discourse that surrounds both the way football should be played and the tactics of the respective managers. It is the immovable object against the irrepressible force, the counter-attackers against the pass-masters, the spoilers against the instigators.
Mourinho will say that his side are more than that. And they are, especially when Paul Pogba is fully fit and firing. They have out-scored everyone in the league bar City, and their current points per game rate would see them finish the season on 89 – only twice in the last 11 seasons has a team picked up more points than that.
But the qualities of the two teams are nevertheless markedly different. United sit considerably deeper and absorb pressure, while they have been indebted to the reflexes of David de Gea – only relegation-threatened Swansea goalkeeper Lukasz Fabianski has been forced to make more saves this season. Against Arsenal, the Spaniard made a record-equalling 14 saves; City keeper Ederson has only made 20 all season.
That difference feels symptomatic of the two teams’ styles. United deny opposition teams the chance to take good shots (54% of De Gea’s saves have been from shots inside the box), while the chances City concede, though fewer in number, are of far greater quality (70% of Ederson’s saves have been from shots inside the box).
City’s approach to defending is to stop attacks before they materialise. Their overwhelming control of possession provides the opposition with fewer chances to attack, while their high line and immediate pressing when they lose the ball breaks up those rare forays forward quickly. Mourinho allows teams to build attacks, but he sucks the tempo out of moves and funnels the play away from danger men.
That approach is embodied in each manager’s midfielder. Nemanja Matic is a defensive shield, shuttling across the back-line, denying space in the hole and breaking up play. He reacts to danger. Fernandinho, by contrast, is a front-foot footballer. He pushes high, gets on the ball and is always proactive, though is sufficiently aware of danger, and athletic enough, to prevent City’s otherwise incredibly front-loaded formation from becoming too open.
Yet, as much as City look unbeatable right now, they also look stoppable – especially for a manager like Mourinho. He will have noted their vulnerability from set-pieces, their susceptibility to counter-attacks and their reliance on last-minute winners.
No single player has been directly responsible for more points in the entire league than Raheem Sterling, who has scored decisive late goals against Everton, Bournemouth, Huddersfield and Southampton. If he played in a red shirt, Mourinho must think, people would say his side were lucky, struggling to win matches and overly reliant on individuals.
And perhaps City have been, but only because they have so many superb individuals – all playing in one cohesive unit. United may be able to stop Sterling, but can they also deny Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero? Guardiola has so many weapons, and so many different ways to finally break teams down, whether it is precision interplay, a cross from deep or a screamer from range.
It makes Sunday’s match all the more intriguing. Both managers have spent in excess of £300m since taking charge of their respective clubs, yet have built markedly different teams. Perhaps, having spent so much, the attractiveness of the football played should be as important as results. But that will be irrelevant to Mourinho. His Emirates blueprint can be copy and pasted at Old Trafford, and if anyone can deny City a record 15th straight league win, it is him. It just might not be very fun to watch.