With much of this summer’s transfer window revolving around Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United spending big on new strikers, it’s little surprise to see the men up front take centre stage so far this season.
Perhaps spurred on by the immense recent success of the likes of Harry Kane and Sergio Aguero for Tottenham and Manchester City respectively, three of the other main title contenders felt they would need to strengthen up top to really boost their chances this term.
Arsenal have arguably lacked a world class centre-forward since Robin van Persie left in 2012, while United notably had far more trouble finishing chances than creating them last season, with an upgrade on the ageing Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Wayne Rooney clearly needed.
Chelsea, meanwhile, had a fine front-man in Diego Costa, but he wanted to leave, so between them the three clubs ended up spending a combined £187million on new strikers – Alvaro Morata, Romelu Lukaku and Alexandre Lacazette.
With that amount of investment, these new additions will be expecting to compete for the striker’s ultimate prize in this country – the Golden Boot, which Spurs hit-man Kane has scooped up for the last two seasons in a row.
Lukaku was his nearest challenger while with Everton last season, and the signs already seem clear he’ll be even more prolific with United, but who of the long list of contenders really stands out as the favourite, and what stats point towards an eventual Golden Boot winner?
Golden Boot stats based on last ten years (via bwin)
• On average, the Premier League top goalscorer ends on 27 goals – out of the top 6 teams strikers, only Kane and Lacazette managed to beat this average last year
• 49% of the Golden Boot winners score in their opening game – Will Kane’s slow August starts finally lose him the boot, as Lukaku and Aguero are scoring a goal a game and already pulling away?
• It’s better to end strong than start strong, as Golden Boot winners score 68.4% more goals in the final 5 games, than they do in the opening 5 – with Kane bagging 9 goals in his final 5 games last campaign, he may not be too worried about his lack of goals yet
• On average, strikers have scored 14 goals by mid season – With Aguero and Lukaku already on 6 goals each, they will be looking to be well above average come 19 games
• 60% of Premier League top goal scorers don’t play for the title winning team, but it’s a lot more predictable in Ligue 1, where only 30% do not. However, Serie A has an outstanding 90% of Golden Boot winners that don’t play for the Champions
• On average, Premier League Golden Boot winners score 32% of their side’s league goals – with nearly a third of league goals being scored by the Golden Boot winner, it’s proof that it’s worth paying top money to get the best strikers in
• On average, the Premier League top goalscorer will have played 35 league games for their team – Kane won the Golden Boot with 29 goals, playing the lowest record games to do so (30), but all players will be looking for an injury free season in order to keep themselves in the running
• *Chelsea have had the most debutant Golden Boot winners – Morata will be looking to join Anelka and Hasselbaink, as 2 of the 5 players that have won the Golden Boot on their debut season for their club (other 3 being Sheringham, Van Persie and Shearer)
• However, every player that has won it on their debut season, has had previous Premier League experience before winning it with their respected club (Anelka, Hasselbaink, Sheringham, Van Persie and Shearer) – Lacazette will be looking to break this stat, as Arsenal will need a strong season to break back into the all important top 4
*All time Premier League record – all other stats are based off the last 10 years (stats via bwin)
Romelu Lukaku
With six goals to his name in the league already, Lukaku looks in great shape to eclipse the 25 he managed for Everton last season.
If 27 is the average required to claim the top scorer prize, as the stats above show, then that seems well within the Belgian’s reach after a 100% record so far, though he’s unlikely to maintain that kind of accuracy throughout a long and gruelling campaign.
Still, Lukaku is currently averaging 35% of United’s goals – more than the average of 32% as mentioned above, which is some feat considering the goals have been flying in for Jose Mourinho’s side so far as Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial also make decent contributions in that department.
There could be some question marks over burn-out for the 24-year-old, who despite his relative youth has been playing regular football at the top level since he was 17. If the average Golden Boot winner plays 35 games, could that prove a little too much to keep the £75m man at peak level right through until May?
Alvaro Morata
Along with Lukaku, Morata was one of the most in-demand and most talked about strikers in the run-up to this season, so it’s only fitting that he’s now level with the United star on six goals so far.
The Spain international, a £60m buy from Real Madrid, is making the most of his chances to start regularly after a year on the bench for Real Madrid, though it should be little surprise that he’s scoring so regularly after finally getting his chance.
Something of a super-sub for Real last term, Morata managed 15 goals in La Liga and 20 in all competitions. This means he was scoring at a rate of once every 89 minutes in the Spanish top flight, and he’s doing even better in England so far, with an average of a goal every 76 minutes.
With Chelsea not quite as free-scoring as their rivals so far, that means their new signing has weighed in with precisely 50% of their goals so far. That figure should decrease as Eden Hazard gets back to full fitness, but it’s well above the 32% average of a Golden Boot winner, and is one of various promising signs from the player so far.
Harry Kane
Just the four goals so far for Harry Kane, but you’d be a fool to write off the Tottenham man after his tremendous goalscoring form since his breakthrough in the 2014/15 season.
As noted above, the England international tends to be slow to get going due to his bizarre inability to find the back of the net in August, but he tends to end well, as his nine goals in five games at the end of last season shows.
Still, Tottenham’s overall form could be harmed by playing at Wembley this season as they await the construction of their new stadium. Seemingly never as comfortable in their temporary home, where they also played Champions League matches last season, it could be that Kane will have a slightly tougher time of things than usual this term.
Alexandre Lacazette
Not off to quite as much of a flyer as Lukaku and Morata, Alexandre Lacazette still looks to be in the running for the top scorer award this season after four goals for Arsenal so far.
The France international was top scorer in Ligue 1 in 2014/15, when he hit the Premier League average of 27 goals, while he actually bettered that figure with 28 for Lyon last season, despite being pipped to first place by Edinson Cavani.
With Arsenal slow to get going this term, Lacazette has contributed 44% of their league goals so far, which bodes well for him, even if it is rare for new arrivals in the Premier League to win the Golden Boot straight away.
Sergio Aguero/Gabriel Jesus
One of few sides to actually play two up front these days, Manchester City arguably have two strong contenders in their ranks in the form of Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus.
The Argentine leads the way at the moment, level with Lukaku and Morata on six goals, while his Brazilian strike-partner has four to his name.
Surprisingly, Aguero has only won the Golden Boot once in his City career so far, when he netted 26 times in the 2014/15 campaign – his best tally for the club.
Currently averaging 78 minutes per goal, Aguero is bettered only by Morata in that department among the main Golden Boot contenders.
Mohamed Salah
Unlikely to continue as a serious contender, but due to Liverpool’s lack of an out-and-out centre-forward, winger Mohamed Salah currently leads the way for the Reds with four goals.
The Egyptian showed a prolific touch in his time with Roma as well, scoring 19 times from out wide in all competitions last season, with 15 of those coming in Serie A.
Still, Liverpool are a side that like to share the goals around, and with Salah contributing 33% of theirs so far, it seems likely that figure will fall when Sadio Mane returns from suspension and the likes of Philippe Coutinho and Roberto Firmino really get going.
Jamie Vardy
With 24 goals in 36 games as Leicester City won the league in 2015/16, Jamie Vardy established himself as among the top finishers in the country, being narrowly beaten to the Golden Boot by Harry Kane in the end.
The England international wasn’t quite as prolific last season with a drop down to just 13 league goals, but he’s started superbly again this term with five in six games, coming from just ten shots – the lowest number taken of the top five scorers at present.
While it is impossible to write him off, one imagines Vardy will come up just short again due to playing for a struggling Leicester side, with his best chance surely being that incredible season of two years ago.
Golden Boot winner odds (Sky Bet)
Romelu Lukaku, Harry Kane – 3/1
Sergio Aguero – 7/1
Alvaro Morata – 5/1
Gabriel Jesus – 9/1
Alexandre Lacazette – 20/1
Jamie Vardy – 25/1
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