Manchester United’s hopes of shutting out an Arsenal attack that have been rampant in recent weeks took a huge knock when Nemanja Matic limped out of their own thumping win over Watford. The Red Devils are back in London on Saturday, though may be without the summer signing that has been one of the key reasons for their excellent form this season.
Matic is a rarity in the United squad: an out-and-out defensive midfielder who can read and thwart danger before it fully materialises, though capable enough on the ball to put the team on the front foot and provide a platform for Paul Pogba to shine. Without him, the Red Devils start to look a little soft and conceded twice against Watford in the minutes after he was withdrawn.
Injuries have increased the reliance on, and importance of, Matic, and Jose Mourinho has few options that will preserve the sense of balance and solidity he has created. But perhaps that is not such a bad thing. Given that title rivals City are taking on the leakiest defence in the Premier League, the usual must-not-lose approach, and the single point it yields, may not be enough…
ADVENTUROUS
Fortunately for Mourinho, Arsenal’s current setup and formation could allow him to dispatch of a specialist defensive midfielder entirely. Arsene Wenger has been using two combative all-rounders in the central midfield slots of his 3-4-3 and a combo of Paul Pogba and Ander Herrera feels like a good match against Granit Xhaka and Aaron Ramsey.
The Gunners were electric when Tottenham visited two weeks ago, their front three a blur of pressing and movement, but some of that venom will be diluted by the injury to Alexandre Lacazette. Moreover, Mourinho would not allow his side to play as naively as Spurs, who continually tried to play out from the back despite significant pressure.
United’s own back three – and slow-starting summer signing Victor Lindelof – has started to click recently, and in the absence of Matic it would preserve the number of defence-minded players on the pitch. Pace in behind and direct running feels like Arsenal’s biggest weakness, though playing Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford together would require Pogba to be a lot more disciplined than he has been since returning from injury.
SAFETY FIRST
No one player can replace Matic: but two might. Herrera’s discipline – both in his positing without the ball and his tendency to get a little too stuck in – means partnering him, and him alone, with Pogba could create a far more open match than Mourinho wants. If Marouane Fellaini is fit, the Belgian will almost certainly start and allow Pogba to play slightly higher up the pitch.
The problem, however, is that Fellaini has picked up another knee problem that ruled him out of Tuesday’s win over Watford. The last time he suffered such an injury, he missed six matches, and United have yet to ascertain the severity of his latest issue. If he is fit, it would be a huge boost, especially with Fellaini often providing an out-ball in tricky away games that could prevent Lukaku from becoming isolated again.
BACK FOUR BASICS
The final, and perhaps likeliest, option for Mourinho is to return to a back four. It is undoubtedly the formation that United are most accustomed to, while it is unlikely that the Portuguese coach would be prepared to ask Marcos Rojo to play two 90 minute matches over the space of four days so soon after returning from a serious injury. Were Phil Jones and Eric Bailly not injured, you suspect he would not have dabbled with a back three at all.
If Fellaini is fit, the holding duo in a 4-2-3-1 picks itself. If not, Mourinho may opt to flood his frontline with more defence-conscious, hard-working attackers who can press and harry the Arsenal back-line. Juan Mata and Jesse Lingard would provide graft and legs in midfield, as well as ball retention and counter-attacking threat respectively. He’ll likely pick one of Rashford or Martial, not both.
When Spurs lost at the Emirates, they shifted to a back four in the second half and looked more in control of the match – admittedly in part because Arsenal sat off. For United, it would allow them to outnumber Arsenal’s two-man central midfield while also carrying significant – and very fast – threat in behind when the home side’s wing-backs push forward.
MOURINHO’S DILEMMA
The most interesting aspect of Saturday’s match from Manchester United’s point of view is how Mourinho approaches the game. In normal circumstances, a point would be a good result, but this weekend it would likely leave them 10 points behind City ahead of their crunch derby clash. Lose that and the gap could be insurmountable already. Strangely enough, though, Matic’s injury may force Mourinho to play with greater abandon than he otherwise would. For better or worse.