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Champions League: Liverpool the British club most likely to progress, says study

By Alex BysouthBBC Sport

Last updated on .From the section European Footballcomments279

Liverpool
Liverpool progressed to the Champions League group stage by beating Hoffenheim in qualifying

Liverpool's Champions League draw makes them the British club most likely to qualify for the knockout stage, according to an analytical study.

Gracenote Sportsexternal-link says their chances of progressing from the group stage rose by 30% when they were drawn with Sevilla, Spartak Moscow and Maribor.

Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich are the sides given the best chance - 97% - of reaching the last 16.

Scottish champions Celtic are given just a 4% chance of going through.

The likelihood of them progressing was 11% before they were drawn with Bayern Munich, PSG and Anderlecht.

Teams most likely to progress to last 16
Real Madrid (97%)Juventus (88%)
Barcelona (97%)Atletico Madrid (85%)
Bayern Munich (97%)Sevilla (84%)
Paris St-Germain (93%)Monaco (83%)

Lucky Liverpool?

Prior to the draw, Gracenote predicted Liverpool, who made it to the group stage with a 6-3 aggregate win over Hoffenheim, would not be among the 16 clubs to reach the knockout stage.

But, at 81%, they are now given the best chance of the six British clubs in the competition.

Tottenham Hotspur are predicted to miss out to Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund in Group H.

Roma are given a 48% chance of progressing from Group C ahead of Chelsea or Atletico Madrid, while Shakhtar Donetsk (45%) could cause an upset in a group that includes Manchester City and Napoli.

At 73%, City are given the same chance of progressing as neighbours Manchester United, who face Benfica, Basel and CSKA Moscow.

In a BBC Sport poll, 34% of voters think that out of the British teams Manchester United will go furthest in the Champions League.

Champions League groups at a glance

Group A: Benfica, Manchester United, Basel, CSKA Moscow

Group B: Bayern Munich, Paris St-Germain, Anderlecht, Celtic

Group C: Chelsea, Atletico Madrid, Roma, Qarabag

Group D: Juventus, Barcelona, Olympiakos, Sporting

Group E: Spartak Moscow, Sevilla, Liverpool, Maribor

Group F: Shakhtar Donetsk, Manchester City, Napoli, Feyenoord

Group G: Monaco, Porto, Besiktas, RB Leipzig

Group H: Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Tottenham, Apoel

Arsenal favourites for Europa League progress

Arsenal
Arsenal have been given a 96% chance of progressing from their group

Gracenote believes Arsenal (96%) are the side most likely to progress to the Europa League knockout stages, closely followed by Athletic Bilbao, Villarreal and Dynamo Kiev.

The Gunners face Bate, Koln and Crvena Zvezda in Group H.

Everton are given a 67% chance of progressing from a group including Lyon and Atalanta, but there is almost a 60% chance that a team dropping out of the Champions League will go on to win Europe's second-tier competition.

Three of the past eight Europa League winners were teams who started the season in the Champions League - including Chelsea in 2013.

"There is more chance of a team currently not in the Europa League winning it than one of the 48 starting the competition," said Simon Gleave, head of analysis at Gracenote Sports.

"Eight of the top 12 most likely Europa League winners this season start in the Champions League.

"Of those eight, Borussia Dortmund or Tottenham Hotspur are most favoured to pull this off as both have a high chance of finishing third in Champions League Group H and therefore switching to the Europa League."

How does it work?

Gracenote uses its Euro Club Index ranking of all European top-flight clubs and then simulates the group phase one million times to predict who will progress.

The sports data company correctly predicted 15 of the 16 clubs to progress to the Champions League knockout phase last season, and 27 of 32 from the Europa League.

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Note: The vote in this page has been republished after an incorrect version appeared previously.

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279 comments

  • Comment posted by Angus, at 10:09 12 Sep 2017

    According to their boss, Celtic have been given a 100% chance of showing great character.

  • Comment posted by Lorcan, at 10:21 12 Sep 2017

    Hmmm - so the British team with the easiest group is the most likely to progress. And the really good teams who have easy groups are almost certain to progress. Thank heavens for this study, I really would have struggled to come up with any conclusions as insightful as these.

  • Comment posted by Largewomble, at 10:05 12 Sep 2017

    When's arsenals game? ;)

  • Comment posted by Spurtle, at 10:27 12 Sep 2017

    Was the study done by Lawro by any chance?

  • Comment posted by Nio1, at 10:06 12 Sep 2017

    Absolute disgrace. How can this be...?

    LFC should be automatically straight through to the final -don't they know they have won it 5 times...? They shouldn't need to play any games before the final - just like it used to be in the "olden days"

    The biggest and most famous club in the entire world. If memories were trophies they would need a new trophy room.

    Shell suits at the ready.

  • Comment posted by senan08, at 10:52 12 Sep 2017

    4% chance for Celtic? Bring it on! Betting my wife's savings on it..

  • Comment posted by jay1989, at 10:07 12 Sep 2017

    The team that got hammered 5-0 by City and who are defensive hopeless??? LOL

  • Comment posted by User0871096436, at 10:03 12 Sep 2017

    No 1 wants to talk about luck with that user name?? Pfft

  • Comment posted by Hedgehog, at 11:54 12 Sep 2017

    65. Snake Plissken

    5 Times

    ____

    Yes, that is how many goals City scored against Liverpool at the weekend.

  • Comment posted by JH, at 11:20 12 Sep 2017

    @39 Look at the draw again before you call someone thick..

    I see 5 English teams + 1 scottish (Celtic).

  • Comment posted by Truth be known, at 10:24 12 Sep 2017

    The only fallacious aspect on here are the pathetic, ignorant and childlike comments made by the, so called, MU supporters who have never been to Old Trafford and I doubt they even know where Manchester is let alone Old Trafford.

  • Comment posted by ilikegoodfootball, at 10:31 12 Sep 2017

    I just feel these kinds of reports are just to encourage betting and nothing else.

  • Comment posted by Eggman706, at 11:47 12 Sep 2017

    Signing players like Oxlade-Chamberlain is living proof that even a top four finish doesn't necessarily guarantee the attraction of world class players. It will come as no great shock, having failed to improve our defence, if Liverpool fail to progress beyond the group stages.

  • Comment posted by Justanopinion, at 11:48 12 Sep 2017

    @55. firminos teeth

    I think you're right that qualifying is more important than winning it and with the PL being so competitive English clubs have to work in every domestic fixture. Real Madrid would struggle to do both if they had to but they only have a few tough domestic games a year. It's not a level playing field in that sense. The big money European clubs have a big advantage.

  • Comment posted by TheKingofChrome, at 10:27 12 Sep 2017

    Meaningless journalism fuelled by inflated digital drivel.

  • Comment posted by Asylum Seeker, at 15:17 12 Sep 2017

    Footnote at bottom of this article:

    "Note: The vote in this page has been republished after an incorrect version appeared previously."

    In original article they put Arsenal in Champions League poll! LOL

  • Comment posted by Patrick OConnor, at 12:25 12 Sep 2017

    I'm a Chelsea fan but think Man U are best equipped this year for the CL. They have strengthened significantly and have a manager that is flexible. Man City have strengthened but have a manager that is quite inflexible. Can anyone remember a Guardiola team that had a 'Plan B' ? I'm surprised that so many think Liverpool will go far, obviously missed the weekend's capitulation.

  • Comment posted by Justanopinion, at 11:26 12 Sep 2017

    Oh dear.......

    ---

    "@39. Posted by Krankie goes to Holyrood on
    @29. You are either very sarcastic or very thick. How do you get five English teams in the Champions League draw or have Celtic moved recently?"

  • Comment posted by Colin, at 16:47 12 Sep 2017

    The "Champions League" is the biggest con in sports today. Cartel for generating money for corrupt UEFA and a handful of corrupt clubs. Shameful.

  • Comment posted by Sergio9320, at 11:11 12 Sep 2017

    Liverpool leading the way?

    What the...

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