Arsene Wenger believes 72 points will be enough for a top four finish... Sportsmail analyses the chances of the five teams fighting for two Champions League places 

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Arsene Wenger will ask his team to target the 72-point barrier to be sure of winning what Louis van Gaal dubbed England’s Rat Race.

Five ambitious clubs are locked in a scramble for two Champions League places behind Chelsea and Manchester City and it could prove more tense and exciting than the Barclays Premier League title race itself.

Adding to the sense of theatre is the fact that those who do not join Europe’s elite next season must swallow an estimated £30million in lost revenue and the prospect of a campaign in the largely unloved Europa League.

Arsene Wenger will ask his team to target the 72-point barrier to be sure of securing a top four finish 

Louis van Gaal said that he believed Wenger's estimation of the necessary points total 

‘The best way is to look forward and go as fast as you can,’ said Arsenal manager Wenger. ‘You can see the quality of the teams behind us. Seventy-two points might be enough.

‘People have finished in the top four with 67 points, but if you look at this year, we have 51 points, so it will be in the 70s. It is a tough run-in, similar to last year.’

Arsenal finished fourth last year with 79 points, well clear of Everton in fifth with 72.

It is the proximity of the challengers which has generated an upward trend in recent years. When Everton came fourth in 2005, they had 61 points ahead of Liverpool in fifth with 58. In each of the past two years, however, the team finishing fifth has collected 72 points.

Van Gaal acknowledged Wenger’s years of expertise in the area. ‘I want to believe him,’ said the Manchester United boss. ‘It is a rat race. It is going into the last week.’

Arsenal have not given up hope of catching City to finish second, but there is a nine-point gap to Chelsea who have a game in hand and are threatening to ease clear at the top.

Wenger said: ‘We are nowhere near close to being in the title race. We are too far from Chelsea to say that we are in the title race, but you never know what can happen.

‘Why should Manchester City give up for the title? They did it before from eight points behind. Without speculating on the weaknesses of any team, we want to be consistent and do as well as we can.’

World Cup winner Mesut Ozil has been in impressive form for Arsenal since returning from injury 

ARSENAL 

Suffered a Euro wobble but form is strong in the Premier League, winning six of seven since defeat at Southampton on New Year’s Day, after which Wenger switched goalkeepers. Attention is spread over three competitions, although maybe not for long. They trail Monaco 1-3 in the Champions League and go to Manchester United in the FA Cup. They are awash with goals, have key players fit and options to make changes, especially up front. Also experienced top-four finishers, with an eye still on catching Manchester City.

Top 7 games to play: 3. 

Prediction: 76pts.

Wayne Rooney has returned to an attacking role since Robin van Persie's injury and has performed well there

MANCHESTER UNITED

Results are holding up despite scratchy performances and the misfortune of Robin van Persie’s injury has moved Wayne Rooney back up front which may prove serendipitous. But they are vulnerable at the back and face difficult fixtures, with five of the top seven to play and trips to Crystal Palace, Everton and Newcastle. Away form is poor, with 16 points on the road this season — the worst in top half barring West Ham. Fixtures offer a chance to take points from rivals, but more likely a problem with form so sluggish. Should at least be fresh, having only played 32 games in all competitions.

Top 7 games: 5. 

Prediction: 71pts.

Liverpool have been in formidable form since the turn of the year and recently beat Manchester City

LIVERPOOL 

Finishing with an impressive late run after a dreadful start. Helped by a settled system, the return of Daniel Sturridge and the emergence of others encouraged by the marginalisation of Mario Balotelli and, to a lesser extent, Steven Gerrard. They boast the best form in the Premier League since the turn of the year and have proved capable against big rivals in the recent past. They also have arguably the gentlest fixtures and no more Europe, but finish with awkward away games at Chelsea and Stoke. No sign of fatigue but Burnley is their 45th game of the season.

Top 7 games: 3. 

Prediction: 73pts.

Morgan Schneiderlin has impressed for Southampton this season as the Saints surprised everyone

SOUTHAMPTON 

Scoring goals has proved the big problem for manager Ronald Koeman since the end of January, as if opponents have started to show them respect as a team chasing Champions League qualification and are plotting to stop them. Perhaps this, together with increased expectations, is catching up with them after a brilliant start. Injuries have nibbled away at key elements of a squad which cannot boast the same depth as others pursuing the Champions League. The dream faded during February, a month when Saints scored once in five games, but they have no distractions as they attempt to finish with a flourish.

Top 7 games: 3. 

Prediction: 61pts.

Harry Kane has been in superb form for Tottenham this season, scoring 24 goals so far in all competitions

TOTTENHAM 

In a mini-slump after five without a win in all competitions and bruised by a Europa League exit and Wembley defeat inside three days. Can they be revived and refocused after a gruelling season of 45 games to date? There are 12 more to go, including seven tricky away fixtures. It is a character test for a young team which has key players such as Harry Kane, Ryan Mason, Nabil Bentaleb and Eric Dier completing their first full Premier League campaign. Or will boss Mauricio Pochettino have to go back to those he has cut off, such as Younes Kaboul and Emmanuel Adebayor?

Top 7 games: 3. 

Prediction: 68pts.