Monday 4 September 2017 17:42, UK
Frank de Boer's struggles at Crystal Palace show the difference between a good coach and the right coach, writes Adam Bate.
"It is a simple problem to me," said Crystal Palace chairman Steve Parish when introducing Frank de Boer as the club's new head coach in the summer. "We are eighth or ninth in the league away from home and third bottom in the league at home. We need to find a way of breaking down teams that give us the ball."
That was the logic behind De Boer's appointment. Here was a coach from the Ajax school who could get Palace playing an effective possession-based game. "The technical detail is Frank's world," admitted Parish. "But if teams give us the ball, typically, we lose. If we give them the ball, we beat them and that's top teams as well."
A simple problem, perhaps, but the solution is proving far from easy. For while Parish got the diagnosis correct, it has not taken too long before the prescription has left many at Selhurst Park feeling queasy. De Boer's medication has resulted in three consecutive defeats. The symptoms have been exacerbated rather than alleviated.
There was no shame in losing by the odd goal at Anfield, particularly when Christian Benteke had the best chance of the match. But conceding five without reply at home to newly promoted Huddersfield and a Swansea side that has not even manage a shot on target in their other two matches so far represents an alarming start.
It is worth noting that the 'expected goals' data suggests that Palace had the better chances in both of those home defeats. "We created chances," said Andros Townsend. "You can talk about formations all day long but we need to start putting it away," De Boer agreed. "They had two half-chances and scored both times," he said of the Swansea defeat.
It underlines the fact that these are small margins and the sample size is pitifully small. The greater concern is that players' belief could be sapped by these early struggles. "If we do not show balls or courage then you get punished," said De Boer. "It all starts with courage when you have the ball. You have to make the right choices."
And yet, is there any reason to be confident that the players at De Boer's disposal are likely to make the choices that he demands? This is a man, after all, who has spoken of how his old Ajax team-mate Marc Overmars would read where his marker was by the foot to which De Boer would deliver the pass. That is a big ask of Scott Dann, Joel Ward and the rest.
The issues were not a difficult to anticipate, particularly given that 20-year-old defender Jairo Riedewald was the only permanent addition of the summer not to have been at the club last season. That was a campaign in which Palace ranked in the Premier League's bottom five for possession, passes per game and passing accuracy.
Even Alan Pardew's more modest change of emphasis proved problematic with Palace's form only picking up when Sam Allardyce returned to a more structured style. Speaking to Pardew on the eve of the season, his fears for his old club were clear. "They have gone to what is a revolution really in terms of the change to the system," he explained.
"They are going to be put in situations where they are under a lot of pressure, particularly in terms of the defensive side." Pardew's concerns were echoed by his old team-mate, Palace legend Ian Wright. "I know what he's trying to do," Wright told Sky Sports. "He's trying to play a more expansive game. I just think they need that ruggedness.
"Palace have still got the same players that Sam Allardyce had and they got the ball forward as quickly as they could. With the Palace players who are not used to playing this way, it's only a matter of time if you continually press them that they will start to lose confidence in what they are doing. They will need time to adjust to that.
"I do not know if that is going to happen at Palace. I do not know if they will have the confidence to fail at first and then go through the bad period that will follow and come through it. By Christmas, they could be in serious trouble if they keep doing this. If he continues to keep playing like that, I do worry for Palace."
The danger is that Palace find themselves stuck between two styles - the worst of all worlds. A team attempting to pass the ball before launching it long, thus taking needless risks in possession and allowing the opposition defence to organise themselves before progressing the ball up the pitch into the final third.
"If you started knocking it all round the defence and into midfield and back again," said Parish in that summer press conference, "you need a purpose. It's the Premier League, fans want to see goalmouth action." And yet, Palace had 23 touches in the opposition box against Huddersfield and only 20 last time out against Swansea.
That compares unfavourably with the 30 touches per game that Allardyce's side averaged over the final five home fixtures of the campaign, a run that included matches against Arsenal and Tottenham. He recognised the need to provide service to Benteke with Palace producing the second most headed shots of any team in the Premier League last season.
So should Palace play to their strength of their squad and return to the high tempo counterattacking style that has got them this far or stick to the plan? The more expansive approach will retain a certain allure with sections of the support and Parish's stated ambition to transform Palace into a mid-table team with no fear of the drop is a worthy one.
But if the aim of the change was to bring greater security it is already apparent that the scale of the culture shock is having the opposite effect. The test of how committed Parish is to his vision is already upon us. It may be only the fourth game of his reign but De Boer cannot afford another poor result at Burnley on Sunday. Now this really is that simple.
