UK Edition
From the moment they were simultaneously appointed across town from one another, we knew there was going to be a long and sustained battle between Jose Mourinho and Pep Guardiola. At stake, we thought, was not just the supremacy of Manchester football, but that of the country as a whole.
But what we didn’t initially realise was that there was something far more significant, far more long lasting at the heart of their intense, personal rivalry: they were scrabbling for the very future direction of television punditry. Whoever comes out on top of a struggle that, in these early days of the season, is threatening to determine the course of the league title, is going to have a profound influence on the way the game is dissected.
Take the BBC’s Football Focus programme this weekend. Trevor Sinclair and Mark Lawrenson offered up that most sacred tenet of the analyst’s code: that title-winning football teams are invariably built from the back. A manager intent on scooping the league, so the first law of sofaology has it, can only do so by ensuring defensive solidity. Clough, Paisley, Ferguson all the proper managers knew it: you’ll win nothing without a brick wall back line.
It is not a view you will find Mourinho arguing against. His latest Manchester United side is crafted as if from the pages of the punditry gospel: a superb goalkeeper and a couple of no-nonsense centre-backs, shielded by two giant defensive midfielders. Sure, he has some magnificent forward talent to exploit that core strength. But his team is designed on the simple premise: before you can attack, you have to make sure you do not let the opponent score. “Pragmatic” he called it when he ended with six at the back in the successful management of a victory against Southampton this weekend. And in studios everywhere from Osterley to Salford (plus wherever it is BT broadcast from) the heads were nodding in agreement. That’s the way to do it.
On the other side of Manchester, Guardiola has a somewhat different approach. Rather than foresquare defenders, he floods his team with number 10s. So attack-oriented is his philosophy, he doesn’t even field full-backs, preferring two jet-heeled auxiliary wingers. His methodology has been often described as the “we’ll score more than you” approach. Except that City’s last two away matches have ended in 6-0 and 5-0 victories. That is not tit-for-tat, that is not basketball, that is not just about keeping your nose in front. That is slaughter.
Never mind that his goalkeeper prefers to deliver sixty yard passes to the feet of his forwards rather than get his gloves dirty, if he doesn’t actually have to make a save it doesn’t really matter. This is attack as the boldest form of defence, ensure the opponent doesn’t have a shot by keeping them occupied deep in their own half. It is the kind of thing Jürgen Klopp is trying at Liverpool, albeit without the budget to spend the kind of sums normally found in a Boris Johnson speech on the occupants of his bench.
The assumption of the punditry sofa is that ultimately it is a system that must be found out. Against the elite forward lines of Europe it will come a cropper. Even in the Premier League, it will eventually be undermined sufficiently often to preclude total success.
There is still a long, long way to go. There are many hurdles along the route, several being prepared by Antonio Conte and Mauricio Pochettino. But this is shaping up to be the narrative of the season: can conventional punditry wisdom withstand this assault on its core beliefs? Will the occupants of our broadcasting sofas be obliged to change their assumptions? Or will the established way prevail? If the opening salvoes are anything to go by, it is going to be fascinating to watch.
Manchester united in dividing opinion as Pep Guardiola's swashbuckling frontline threatens to silence pundits