UK Edition
Watford are set on a path to finish eighth in the Premier League which will be their highest-ever place since they were runners-up in the old First Division in 1982-83. They may end up ninth or even 10th but it is unlikely they will finish much below that.
Why eighth? Just six games in and obviously it is impossible, and ridiculously foolhardy, to predict where any club will finish but a look at the record and points trajectory of their head coach Marco Silva since he arrived in English football suggests that not only will they comfortably avoid relegation – after a 17th-place finish last season and 13th place in the campaign before – but can achieve their goal of breaking into the top 10. The priority remains simple – avoid relegation – but Watford could well, in fact, be the best of the rest this season.
Outside the big seven – if Everton and Arsenal get their acts together – it really is much of a much-ness. Yes, there are Southampton and Leicester City, who can probably lay legitimate claim to the middle ground – the ever-so-small group of so-called ‘mid-table’ clubs – but even they privately admit that their first priority is also crystal clear: do not go down.
Already, in fact, there are just five points separating seventh-placed Huddersfield Town and West Ham United in 18th, 11 places below, which is as many as there are between the Manchester clubs and Watford who are currently in sixth. So it is going to be tight.
Which is where managers – or head coaches – who can make a difference come in. Who can eke out those handful of extra points? The hottest measure in football when it comes to management is the oldest one: making best use of what you have got. In the wealthiest league in the world there is also, inevitably, the most waste. Players are bought for exorbitant fees and not used properly or are simply not worth it.
Silva arrived at Hull City in January with the team dead and buried and the club on its knees. The atmosphere was toxic. The 40-year-old Portuguese, new to England, did not save them from going down, they even lost their last three matches meekly, but he went close and gained 24 points from 19 games, half a Premier League season, in fact. Across a campaign he would have comfortably kept them up with that average.
Then factor in his six league matches at his new club, Watford, where he already has those 11 points. So that is 35 points from 25 matches. The return is 1.4 points per game or, over the course of a season, a total of 53 points. In five of the last 10 Premier League campaigns that equates to finishing eighth. The lowest would have been, on two occasions, 10th.
It is an artificial measure, of course, but, crucially, it is one that is now being used by clubs when it comes to assessing the effectiveness of managers. Silva, in business terms, sweats the asset. He gets the best – and more, given the budget - out of what he has got. So the points-per-game ratio counts.
Hull went down. But several of their players stayed in the Premier League – Harry Maguire to Liverpool for £17million, Andy Robertson to Liverpool for £10million and Sam Clucas to Swansea City for up to £16.5million – which showed how they improved under Silva. He made them better. That is another measure.
It has already happened at Watford where the club has recruited well and intelligently – such as the Brazilian forward Richarlison and the Peruvian winger Andre Carrillo, both Silva picks, but also with English players, including record signing Andre Gray and Nathaniel Chalobah. Silva wanted even more – he is extremely ambitious – but will make do with what he has.
Like Hull, Watford had gone stale before Silva arrived although, rightly, the club will point out that it was not in any state of decline or chaos. It just needed a progressive head coach. One who wants to succeed and quickly make his mark. Silva is doing that with the team playing far more aggressive, positive football.
If this carries on big clubs will inevitably come calling and they will also gather that Silva wanted to remain in England having taken the gamble to join Hull. Silva likes the Premier League not least because, in his view, it is where the big managers – Jose Mourinho, Pep Guardiola, Antonio Conte – work. He also likes the fact that after Mourinho and Andre Villas-Boas he is only the third Portuguese manager to work here.
There were offers from Portugal – Porto most seriously – Spain and Italy but, to their credit, it was Watford who made the first and the firmest proposal once they had decided to sack Walter Mazzarri. They pursued Silva and got their man and he responded to that desire to recruit him and wants to achieve something at the club even though he is well aware that Watford have had eight managerial departures in the past five years.
But what Watford do have is a clear identity. A clear way of doing things and a structure, and Silva fits into that perfectly. It is a good fit.
Given the work he has done so far Watford may – eventually – face a different problem with Silva than with his predecessors. They may one day have a fight on their hands to keep hold of him in the long-term. The target for this season is safety first, as always, but Watford appear on a trajectory to achieve more.
If Marco Silva stays with Watford he will guide them to eighth - but they will face a fight to keep him