Why Chelsea could be the perfect team to nullify free-scoring Man City

Against Spurs, Chelsea played three central defenders and two wide defenders, with protection provided by a central midfield three. David Luiz moved into midfield to act as an anchor (and occasionally a fourth central defender), while N'Golo Kante and Tiemoue Bakayoko snapped and snarled at Spurs players who tried to play football in central areas. 

Judging by Conte's complaints about Chelsea's hectic schedule (if only Premier League managers had the resources to buy enough players to cope...), and based on the attacking strength of the opposition, it is likely he will attempt something similar against Man City.

The idea is that you deny any opportunity to score in your own box, play on the counter-attack and hope for just one chance to fall your way. When it does, you must take it, which is perhaps why Conte was so keen to sign Alvaro Morata, a clinical striker. Eden Hazard and Willian can create chances out of nothing and in this system, one will probably start the match while the other comes on later to challenge a tiring Man City defence who - if the plan works - will be chasing a goal late in the game.

City's formation changes constantly throughout matches but in most attacking phases of play, they have two central strikers, two roaming attacking midfielders, width from players on the touchline and defensive players providing cover further back. One guarantee is that they will try to stretch the pitch - Chelsea's 5-3-2 shape condenses the space in central areas, forcing the ball wide and making it difficult for wide players to provide opportunities to score. Gabriel Jesus can find room to score on the tube at rush hour, but in a box packed with big centre-backs, won't win many headers. Low crosses can be cleared by foot.

But City can break the wall down, that's what talented players do. Spurs were able to create several opportunities in a 2-1 defeat at Wembley - as in this example when the defensive line isn't as organised as a very Italian manager might like it. If Chelsea don't hold their line, balls over the top will create chances for clever runs by forwards.

And that line must be deep. Liverpool learned (several times) in their 5-0 humping at the Etihad, that playing a high line does not work against quick strikers.

Their two centre-backs were caught out far too easily for City's opening goal as David Silva threaded a pass between them. With a deeper line, and a third central defender plugging the gap, it's far harder to thread through-balls in behind.

Chelsea will not risk a suicidal high line against Man City and will instead keep three central defenders positioned deep, with the full-backs level in defensive situations and pushed forward when in possession. But how do Chelsea counter-attack from a safety first tactical set up?

Luiz will be a big miss for the Man City game. His role as ball-winning midfielder was the catalyst for several of Chelsea's quick counter-attacks in the Spurs game at Wembley.

With a safety net behind him, Luiz was able to step forward and steal the ball in central areas, usually doing so when Chelsea had lost possession higher up the pitch. If he won the ball, Chelsea could counter-attack. If he didn't, the best option was to commit a foul and break up the play. Luiz likes doing that.

In this example, Luiz tackles Victor Wanyama and lets Marcos Alonso carry the loose ball forward. Alonso moves the ball wide to Pedro and sprints into space, Pedro returns the favour.

Chelsea go 2-1 up, albeit thanks to some rare poor goalkeeping by Hugo Lloris at his near post, but it shows the importance of having ball-winning players in midfield instead of nimble, creative ones for this system.

Another example from earlier in the match is when Kante wins the ball in his own half and has seven players behind him. Spurs have pushed men forward to try and overload the space to create something - anything - and can be exposed on the counter-attack.

Kante moves the ball to Willian, whose job all game has been to pick up possession in these areas and run at the Spurs defence.

He does just that, while Morata peels into space to the left.

Morata takes on the defence and cuts inside onto his right foot to shoot. He doesn't score, but goes close. These are the types of chances that Conte wants his players to create while defending the rest of the pitch - every other Chelsea player is committed to staying back in this move, meaning Spurs cannot counter-attack.

If a defence is organised, it's usually really difficult to break down, which is why many managers opt for counter-attacking strategies to catch them out in transition. Jurgen Klopp likes to press high up the pitch to force opportunities, Jose Mourinho prefers to pounce nearer the halfway line - Italy have always been the masters of waiting patiently and striking clinically from deep and Conte knows the system inside out.

Chelsea were good against Spurs but didn't stop them creating chances - Man City will find space to shoot and with confidence flying high, will likely find a way to score. However, injury to one of their defenders could have a huge impact on this game and the rest of the season.

Benjamin Mendy has been influential in City's multi-goal blitzes and the knee injury he sustained against Crystal Palace could alter Guardiola's plans.

Mendy hugs the touchline, which is exactly what Guardiola wants his wing-backs/full-backs to do and is rapid. By literally standing on the line, he and his opposite wide player (usually Kyle Walker) stretch the pitch, creating gaps between defenders standing in a row as they shift from side to side to cover danger areas.

Danilo can play this role but is naturally right-footed and not as dangerous in attack as Mendy, whose early cross for Aguero against Liverpool is an example of a forward-thinking winger, rather than a defensive player who gets forward. A right footed player would struggle to pull this off.

Fabian Delph was preferred to the Brazilian for the Shakhtar Donetsk game and was, according to Guardiola, the Man of the Match. A natural left-footed player, his work-rate and engine for bombing up and down the wing suits this style of play, but he needs to learn the position.

Mendy keeps opposition full-backs pinned back, scared of the damage he can do out wide and in attacking areas. Victor Moses will not be as fearful of the mighty Delph or Danilo and might feel encouraged to explore this channel himself. Eden Hazard will almost certainly look to exploit any weakness in the City left-back.

That said, despite fluidly switching positions and constantly changing shape, Man City look organised and frightening. If Chelsea try to park the bus and go 1-0 down early on, they'll have to try something else to get back in the game and the threat of Jesus, Leroy Sane and the rest means trying to suffocate the game is risky strategy. Spurs very nearly got a result and Man City have the advantage of being able to study the weaknesses in how Chelsea played this system.

Another possibility is that Conte simply tries to beat Man City with the same 3-4-3 he used to defeat them twice last season. Does Conte risk leaving space for City's inform strikers and look for a win? Or recognise the fatigue that can set in from travelling to difficult midweek Champions League matches and try to strangle a point in a top of the table clash only a few days after?

Hindsight makes vulnerabilities seem obvious, foresight is the key to victory on Saturday. Guardiola and Conte must predict the other's tactical choices several moves ahead.