Rewind to the first week in February and José Mourinho sat triumphant in the media theatre at the Etihad Stadium while the Premier League digested Manchester City’s first home defeat of the Premier League campaign. Chelsea had become the first visiting team to claim any kind of reward at the arena and, in the process, moved level with their hosts and to within two points of the summit with the prospect of a first league title in four years very real. Yet Mourinho, correctly as it would prove, was coy over their chances. He spoke of a season of evolution, claiming Chelsea were only undertaking now what Arsenal, the leaders at the time and the team he considered favourites, had “been building to for years”. The sides overseen by Arsène Wenger and Manuel Pellegrini were, he suggested, the real contenders. “The title race is two horses and a little horse,” Mourinho said. “We are a little horse who needs milk and to learn how to jump.”
Now fast forward to the present day and that evolution has yielded a two‑horse race for the league title. Mourinho may insist otherwise, pointing to a clutch of perceived contenders behind the top two, but Chelsea are unbeaten and six points clear with City in form and another four from third. Those in the chase are already privately resigned to a hopeless game of catch-up.
The real intrigue is which of the top two boast the better staying power: avoid defeat on Saturday at Newcastle and Mourinho’s team will set a club record 24-game undefeated run; Pellegrini’s champions have won their last four and will recall that, this time last year, they had embarked on a sequence of 11 wins in 12 unbeaten games to set them up for the title. This season’s drama is reserved for this tête-à-tête at the top, but where does the real advantage lie? Can City claw back the six-point deficit and rein in the leaders? Or do Chelsea boast the nous and quality to earn Mourinho his third Premier League trophy? Here, Guardian sport examines each side’s strengths and weaknesses.
Attack
Chelsea 9/10 They pose a creative threat from midfield, either through the scuttling Eden Hazard from wide or the revived and industrious Oscar operating nominally in the No10 brief. Cesc Fàbregas offers delivery and poise from a deeper position, the Spaniard a conveyor belt of assists, with Willian and Ramires effective on the right and the World Cup-winner André Schürrle waiting to make his own mark. Yet the biggest difference from last year is the team’s new focal point. Diego Costa provides bite, brawn and a presence up front that was lacking, his 11 goals in as many matches indicative of an instant adaptation to the English game. He unnerves the best, a player prepared to ruffle up Vincent Kompany just as he did John Terry in last year’s Champions League semi-finals. And, if the Spain international’s hamstring, groin or disciplinary issues flare up again, the midweek win over Tottenham suggested Didier Drogba and Loïc Rémy are impressive back-ups. Chelsea have upgraded from last season’s forward line. A tally of 33 goals to date reflects as much.
Manchester City 8/10 This has been the Sergio Agüero show so the fear for Manchester City is what would happen if he went down injured. Agüero’s 19 goals in 20 appearances in all competitions including 14 in 14 league games – three more than Costa – is a breathtaking return. Pellegrini’s side have scored 31 times in the division to emphasise further how crucial Agüero is. City’s other strikers, Edin Dzeko and Stevan Jovetic, have failed to spark, with only six league goals between them. Failing to recruit a replacement for Álvaro Negredo after his loan move to Valencia may yet prove a folly. Agüero has suffered 17 separate breakdowns in fitness since joining in summer 2011 with the latest a knee injury in September. However, his ever-present presence in the league indicates what may be a new robustness in the 26-year-old, with City having been particularly watchful this season. They need to be. With Yaya Touré – a midfielder – the only other real contributor of league goals (with three), Agüero has to keep on keeping on.
Defence
Chelsea 9/10 Thibaut Courtois has been excellent since displacing Petr Cech, a player who has done nothing to justify his omission, and few clubs boast two goalkeepers of such pedigree. Indications are Cech will remain until the summer at least. There is reassurance, too, in the partnership of John Terry and Gary Cahill who have forged an impressive understanding, while Mourinho has even spoken glowingly of Kurt Zouma’s progress as an understudy. The Frenchman will be “a big player for Chelsea for many years”, though it is the aggressive and tireless Branislav Ivanovic who provides the most obvious cover should injury affect one of the experienced centre-halves. There is depth to the full-back options, with César Azpilicueta playing at last season’s levels, while the back line benefit from a colossus operating as a shield in midfield. Nemanja Matic was earmarked to step into a problem position last January, an interceptor and harrier rather than feverish tackler, and his game has developed at pace. He is the power alongside which Fàbregas can orchestrate Chelsea’s rhythm.
Manchester City 7/10 “Problematic, suspect and vulnerable” are three apposite adjectives for this department. City just do not appear secure when teams come at them with pace. Eliaquim Mangala, whose record transfer for a defender has emerged as closer to £40m than £32m originally believed, has been a disappointment since signing from Porto. The Frenchman has been leaden-footed, clumsy and unable to read play on too many occasions. For all that money – the price of a high-class striker – the 23-year-old should have adjusted to life in the Premier League by now. Mangala is not the only defender who has to improve. Kompany has been at fault to the side’s cost, while Gaël Clichy has proved shaky since deputising for the injured Aleksandar Kolarov.
Experience
Chelsea 8/10 Form has been impeccable. The team has a relentless look. Avoid defeat at Newcastle and Chelsea’s unbeaten run will stretch back to the final two fixtures of last season, with only six points shed to date in the league. Mourinho has consistently dismissed talk of an invincible campaign, preferring to take risks in tight matches to claim victories rather than becoming distracted by avoiding defeat. He has suggested they are an inexperienced side but there is pedigree: it contains Champions League and World Cup winners in Terry, Ivanovic, Cech, Drogba, Mikel John Obi and even, technically, Matic; players who have won the Premier League; Hazard has won the French title, while the trio taken from Atlético Madrid – Costa, Filipe Luís and Courtois – are maintaining expectations from last term. Chelsea boast the individuals who have been there and done it, and can carry them through.
Manchester City 9/10 Two championships in three years point to a store of knowledge and a battle-hardened team. This knowhow is invaluable and where it seems to have told particularly is in recent weeks. When the gap to Chelsea was eight points and City were enduring a wobble in late October and early November – winning once in four games – the conclusion was an unwanted case of history repeating itself: the same insipid title defence as occurred under Roberto Mancini in 2012-13. Pellegrini’s response was to offer a public stance of no panic and that City would come good. And despite the team’s similar travails in the Champions League, the manager has been justified with the recent run of form as City again resemble the powerhouse that made the club double champions.
Manager
Chelsea 9/10 Mourinho claims to have changed, to see the long-term picture, but his first trophy-less season in English football last season will have left him smarting. The seeds were undoubtedly sown that year for this campaign’s prospective success, and this is a manager whose track record and whole demeanour is that of a natural born winner. He and the recruitment department have meticulously targeted players who will bring the best out of each other. There is a strategy in place which others cannot match, and it is already benefiting the manager. He can tweak his system, alter the team’s style, and retain that willingness and boldness to rip things up early in contests when he recognises a tactic is not paying off. This squad gives him options. When the race is at its tightest the old tricks will re-emerge in his press briefings – there has been no need up to now to rile a rival given how well things have gone – to provide an edge off the pitch and withdraw the focus from his players and on to him. Mourinho has played this game before. He is convinced this group can go on to emulate the achievement of his first Chelsea teams and become serial trophy winners.
Manchester City 8/10 Pellegrini can be tactically limited with a one-dimensional strategy of attack and little else and is seemingly locked into the same 4-2-2-2 formation. Yet his man-management and an admirable ability to maintain focus have overcome the early-season stutter, a moment of adversity that will strengthen his players and their belief in him. To lead City to the Premier League title in a first season in English football – only Carlo Ancelotti and Mourinho have done the same – is an achievement that should not be underestimated or forgotten. This was a manager who had never won a major trophy in European football in a decade despite managing Cristiano Ronaldo’s Real Madrid. So the Cool Hand Luke-style with which he guided City to the crown in the last weeks of the campaign despite Liverpool being the favourites illustrates a confidence and intelligence that marks out an elite coach. Pellegrini is no Mourinho but do not be surprised if he continues to evolve and improve.
Hurdles
Chelsea 9/10 Chelsea have arguably played most of their trickiest away fixtures, drawing at Manchester City and Manchester United, winning at Liverpool and Everton, with only a game at White Hart Lane on New Year’s Day and April’s trip to Arsenal of the other established elite clubs still to come – and Mourinho has never lost to a Wenger team. More critical will be how the squad cope with fixture congestion as they pursue honours on all fronts, not least when the Champions League resumes in February. That will test the depth of talent and, if City are no longer involved, might thrust the domestic advantage towards the champions. It proved too much last term, when such as Aston Villa and Crystal Palace inflicted damage on this team’s prospects. They will be tougher this time around. Given Mourinho’s home record at Chelsea – one league defeat in 86 matches – they will hardy be quaking at the prospect of welcoming City, United and the Merseyside clubs to Stamford Bridge.
Manchester City 8/10 Despite the resurgence might City again stumble? The sense remains they can creak and become stale. Four of the front six – David Silva, Samir Nasri, Yaya Touré, and Agüero all select themselves while the competitors for the final two attacking berths, Dzeko, Jovetic, James Milner and Jesús Navas, are at least a class below. As all managers do – and must – Pellegrini will hope the best is yet to come but is it? How much better can they be than the side who have managed to win their past three games but had to do so when falling behind in two of them? For Chelsea the opposite appears true: they can and seem certain to become better under managerial genius Mourinho. So the challenge for Pellegrini’s team is to prove the sceptics wrong between now and May. But, just for a moment, imagine if Agüero was to lose form …
Total
Chelsea 44/50 Man City 40/50
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